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Baseball Picks 2011

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Baseball's regular season is finally here, and I hope it will help me cut down on some of the downright stupid basketball plays Iv'e been making lately. Last year we saw a big drop in runs scored thanks to MLB continuing to clean up the sport from PED's. I think this helped a lot of experienced bettors have a solid year. (Unders and Runline Dogs)

It's going to be interesting to see the totals this year, last year it seemed like they started the year in the 8-9 range and by the end of the year it wasn't rare to see the majority of games in the 6-8 range. There was tons of money to be made on Unders if you noticed this trend quickly and capitalized..I expect to see teams continue to implement more and more "small ball" this year and it will be fun to see what it does to runs scored overall... It may be hard to find value in totals unless there is a new PED floating around, we'll see...

Another thing to keep your eye on is teams ability to steal bases and control the running game. I'm telling you right now, guys like Josh Beckett and Lincecum could run into trouble with their long deliveries. I'm going to try to and pinpoint the managers and teams that will look to take advantage of the "new" brand of baseball we will see more and more of in the coming years...
 
After looking over the lines I keep coming back to the same game. The Braves play the Nationals at 1PM eastern on Thursday and there is bad weather in the forecast..With two starters that rely so much on movement, I see them both struggling in the cold humid weather and not lasting very long, especially if there is delays.

I see a long day for everyone involved in this game if they do end up getting it in.. from the grounds crew, to the bullpens....from the pinch hitters, to the scorekeepers...

hope I'm right..

Braves/Nationals OVER (8) -123
 
One of the best pitchers average baseball fans don't know about is Y.Gallardo... He is the rare combination of power and command, not to mention throws 4 quality pitches. Just when he was ready to become a household name, the Brewers traded for Zack Greinke and he had to share the spotlight.. Well, Greinke is hurt so we will all get to see just how great this guy is on opening day...

The Brewers play the Reds on Thursday at 2 PM eastern, and although most think the Reds are a very good team with a nice lineup, I am one that thinks they are a tad over rated. Guys like J.Gomes, Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips and R.Hernandez might put up numbers at the end of the year, but against a top flight guy like the one they'll face tomorrow these guys look more and more below average. There is probably 2 guys that can do damage off of Gallardo in this Reds lineup... Joey Votto is one and whoever has a lucky day is the other...

As much as I love this Gallardo guys arm, I am very much concerned about the Brewers bullpen. Any team that had Hoffman at closer last year has to have issues in the pen.. Maybe they have made strides, but until i see it, I will just assume they are as shitty as they were last year..


Brewers (First Five Innings) -101


E.Volquez will be throwing for the Reds. He didnt get a full spring in and had some command issues.. Hoping he isn't completely ready to go...
 
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