Hooligans Sportsbook

Baseball gamblers >>

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    53 Replies •
  • Views 3,491 Views
Follow
rito

rito

New Member
Since
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
11,584
Score
2
Tokens
0
Let's say I accidentally ended up with a large position on PHI -265. Horrible play or what? I can probably get out of it with a pain in the ass phone call or by playing the other side, but I'm kind of lazy.
 
Wind is expected to be blowing in at a decent rate which will help HR Hamels in their Little League park. Norris throws hard but Phils are a time bomb waiting to explode run wise? Winning w/o much run production. Never plays these high ML's myself but appears to be a good play? Usually I go for the sucker RL and they win by 1!

7 day and 14 day numbers suggest the Phils the hotter team. High ML assuming from Phils giving away last night's game? Norris real good last few starts. Low total for Citizens bank park (wind blowing in and umpire G Gibson 5-18 this year for Overs.) Gibson 19-8 though for home team winning. I'm thinking Dom Brown plays in right tonight and Werth gets to think about last night from the pine?
 
I don't want to distract from Durito's question but I am wondering.

I thought professionals never got themselves involved with heavy ML's. I thought the whole premise of being labeled a professional was being able to spot value. Do not take my question as being judmental I am merely trying to evaluate something.

Now personally my idea of value is a HIGH liklihood of a play being a winner regardless of what the juice involved is so naturally I would be on a -265 play but I just thought that went against the very core of a Think Tanker type.

Please, again this is just a topic of discussion and not an attack, a judgment or an accusation that anyone here is or isn't a true professional.
 
wal66
I don't want to distract from Durito's question but I am wondering.

I thought professionals never got themselves involved with heavy ML's. I thought the whole premise of being labeled a professional was being able to spot value. Do not take my question as being judmental I am merely trying to evaluate something.

Now personally my idea of value is a HIGH liklihood of a play being a winner regardless of what the juice involved is so naturally I would be on a -265 play but I just thought that went against the very core of a Think Tanker type.

Please, again this is just a topic of discussion and not an attack, a judgment or an accusation that anyone here is or isn't a true professional.
Click to expand...

Now you've gone and done it. Holy crap.

<--------- That was actually my face after reading Wallyball's post.
 
Your mistake is looking at only one part of the equation Wally. What a good player does is weighs the probability vs price.

The tendency is for the public to give too much credit to favs in major sports, but this is only a tendency.
 
No need to be so defensive, wal. It's a good quesion, and a good example of the rather large gap between the truth and the general misconceptions about pros.

Successful gamblers should love to find value in large favorites, and most do. The larger favorite the better, if it's +EV. +EV bets with a high winning percentage are much better for bankroll growth than +EV bets with low winning percentages (big dogs).

The misconception about pros hating big favorites probably comes from the fact that most markets lean towards offering more value on the underdogs, so a person is just generally gonna find more +EV opportunities on that side. But, there are lots of good plays on favorites in baseball. After the first month, I play almost 50/50 favs/dogs.
 
That's exactly my point Reno.

Not Durito or maybe not even Mr. X for that matter but there are those who will see someone post that they are on a heavy 200+ fav and ohhhhh it's on. "What a square play!" "Loser's risk so much to win so little!" "Joe public strikes again!"

My personal position is yes there are times when risking a lot in order to win a little isn't a bad investment due to it's overwhelming potential for at least some return. It's pedestrian but it does work. I personally like seeing that someone like Durito has a position on such a heavy fav and someone like Mr. X defends the position. I would be nutting myself if MonkeyFocker joined in and gave his blessing as well.

Sometimes the fav's are the right side regardless of the price. It doesn't make a good read, it's not something the Think Tanks of the world would ever let out but it is honest.

Durito, I hope the Phil's cruise for you tonight and trust that I at no point was mocking your position. I personally am happy to see someone I consider a numbers guy, a professional playing something that I myself an "Average Joe" would assume to be a solid investment.
 
Wally, what a post! Very insightful and from IMO you were neither condescending nor judgmental, and probably not even a prick! Wally, what's your play tonight? I'm scared of playing big favs but you seem to do good with them!
 
greek has Phils TT Over 4.5 -125 and Astros TT Under 3 -140. Everyone loves the Phils? Hamels pitched games has produced 11 TT under 3 runs and 7 TT over 3. Would have thought more overs without looking at the numbers. Home games 6-3 advantage for under 3 runs.
 
Mr. Monkey, I do tend to only play favs but it's cause of my vision. It takes a keen eye to spot a dog and I'm getting old and the eyes are going fast.

I fon't know that I am a player of heavy favs though. My average fav is right around -165, maybe that's high, I've never really looked.

Playing an under tonight though, not something I am accustom to doing.

Braves/Rockies under 9.
 
People have different ways to sort and evaluate data. Personally, I seldom bet an MLB favorite beyond about -120. My data which is very general says it won't work in the big picture. i.e. - you bet all the big chalk moneylines you see, you lose in the long term. It's a bad pool to fish from.

And that's true, make no mistake.

But there is more than one way to skin a cat. Big chalk favorites obviously do win a lot and if you can find the right filters to pick out the best ones, you should be able to make money.


Same principle applies to all lines.
 
wal66
Not Durito or maybe not even Mr. X for that matter but there are those who will see someone post that they are on a heavy 200+ fav and ohhhhh it's on. "What a square play!" "Loser's risk so much to win so little!" "Joe public strikes again!"
Click to expand...

You could scour the forums and never find me criticizing a play because it's a big favorite. I will sometimes critique someone's methods for coming up with a play, and more often than not when someone falls into the more common traps when trying to analyze a play, it leads them to a favorite that's a bad value.

wal66
My personal position is yes there are times when risking a lot in order to win a little isn't a bad investment due to it's overwhelming potential for at least some return. It's pedestrian but it does work. I personally like seeing that someone like Durito has a position on such a heavy fav and someone like Mr. X defends the position. I would be nutting myself if MonkeyFocker joined in and gave his blessing as well.
Click to expand...

I think durito probably ended up in this position by getting stuck with one side of a scalp or some similar blunder, not through handicapping.

As for my take on the game, my main model shows a sizable edge on PHI, but I consider it kind of dubious. There are some things about this matchup that probably lead it to undervalue HOU a bit. If forced to take one side, though, I would be on PHI.


wal66
Sometimes the fav's are the right side regardless of the price. It doesn't make a good read, it's not something the Think Tanks of the world would ever let out but it is honest.
Click to expand...

I would disagree vehemently with that statement, but you probably already knew that.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.