Polaroid
I need a tittle
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On Wednesday, Alex Rodriguez hit career home run #600 against Toronto's Shaun Marcum, after a 46 at bat homerless streak, as New York sealed a 5-1 win at Yankees stadium. In doing so, Rodriquez became the sixth player to join the 600 Club alongside Barry Bonds (with 762 career dingers), Hank Aaron (755), Babe Ruth (714), Willie Mays (660), Ken Griffey Jr. (630) and Sammy Sosa (609) and as well as the youngest to achieve the feat. Rodriquez hit No. 600 just eight days following his 35th birthday which was a year and 188 days younger when Babe Ruth left the yard for the 600th time, also as a Yankee. Alex Rodriquez is currently in the third year of a ten year contract with the Yankees so it would certainly seem that he should have enough playing time, with a contract running into his age 42 season, to become the all time Home Run King especially as he reached 600 a total of three years and sixteen days earlier than Barry Bonds and a exactly three years after reaching 500.
The ZiPS prediction is that Rodriguez will end the 2010 season with 26 home runs making a career total of 609 and leaving him 154 short of the ultimate goal which he would reach with an average of just 22 home runs per season for the remaining seven years of his 10 year $272 million contract. However, there is every indication that the power left in his bat wont be enough to overtake Bonds record.
Taking a three year average since A-Rod started to play full time for the Mariners in 1996 up the prediction for the reminder of the 2010 season, his average number of home runs reached a plateau of 45+ per season over a nine year period before dropping sharply over the last three years where he has failed to hit over 35 taters in any one year; and this is not skewed by a difference in the amount of playing time since the number of home runs per 1000 plate appearances shows a similar decline. Should Rodriquez be truly a 26 HR a season guy in 2010 and his output declines by just one per year then he will be set to finish his contract in New York aged 42 and with 763 home runs; however, this is assuming that he has no major injuries and, more importantly, that his power only drops marginally as the years progress.
Despite beating Bonds to #600 by a full 3+ years, Rodriquez is already on the decline in terms of his power numbers as his ISO peaked in his age 32 season and has sharply declined ever since. By contrast, for reasons unknown, Barry Bonds enjoyed an unprecidented twilight to his career and even in his age 41 season he managed to sport a higher ISO than Rodriquez had attained in any year of his career so far.
A few years ago, Alex Rodriquez was touted as a player who may not only hit 800 career home runs but would also make sure that the title of Home Run King would be held by someone clean of any performance enhancing drugs. His 2009 admission of multiple years of drug use ensured that the title will be tarnished for some time to come and, despite the celebrations of #600, it could very well be that the title wont be changing hands any time soon either.
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The ZiPS prediction is that Rodriguez will end the 2010 season with 26 home runs making a career total of 609 and leaving him 154 short of the ultimate goal which he would reach with an average of just 22 home runs per season for the remaining seven years of his 10 year $272 million contract. However, there is every indication that the power left in his bat wont be enough to overtake Bonds record.
Taking a three year average since A-Rod started to play full time for the Mariners in 1996 up the prediction for the reminder of the 2010 season, his average number of home runs reached a plateau of 45+ per season over a nine year period before dropping sharply over the last three years where he has failed to hit over 35 taters in any one year; and this is not skewed by a difference in the amount of playing time since the number of home runs per 1000 plate appearances shows a similar decline. Should Rodriquez be truly a 26 HR a season guy in 2010 and his output declines by just one per year then he will be set to finish his contract in New York aged 42 and with 763 home runs; however, this is assuming that he has no major injuries and, more importantly, that his power only drops marginally as the years progress.
Despite beating Bonds to #600 by a full 3+ years, Rodriquez is already on the decline in terms of his power numbers as his ISO peaked in his age 32 season and has sharply declined ever since. By contrast, for reasons unknown, Barry Bonds enjoyed an unprecidented twilight to his career and even in his age 41 season he managed to sport a higher ISO than Rodriquez had attained in any year of his career so far.
A few years ago, Alex Rodriquez was touted as a player who may not only hit 800 career home runs but would also make sure that the title of Home Run King would be held by someone clean of any performance enhancing drugs. His 2009 admission of multiple years of drug use ensured that the title will be tarnished for some time to come and, despite the celebrations of #600, it could very well be that the title wont be changing hands any time soon either.
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