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A slot simulation

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MonkeyF0cker

Mean People Suck
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No, Plommer. This isn't the slot you're probably looking for...

There are sometimes slot machines in the casinos that have max progressives. A typical situation is one in which there is a major progressive and a minor progressive. These types of machines must pay out once they reach the maximum levels. So the question that an advantage gambler might ask is, "At what point are these long term profitable plays?" What one would need to do is to create a simulation and have an idea of what the hold is set to on the machines. The attached spreadsheet is a rudimentary form of such a simulator. It factors in what you might expect the hold to be. This is critical information. Typically, in Las Vegas, penny slots might have something around a 10-12% hold. This simulator, however, doesn't factor the progressive payouts into the hold. So, you should probably aim a couple of percentage points higher to be safe. A simulator that accounted for this would be a bit more involved. However, this can give you a general idea of where you need to be. It also simply simulates a worst case scenario - it spins until the major progressive jackpot reaches the maximum level and must be paid. The jackpots are random. So there is a fairly good chance that you would not need to reach the maximum level to hit the jackpot. However, it's probably better to err on the side of caution.

You will also need to know how much money (coin in) is needed to move the jackpots. You can simply gather this information by watching someone play for a while.

The spreadsheet includes more than a few factors that attempt to calculate your profit/loss.

Hold - the house hold per spin
Major - the current major progressive jackpot
Minor - the current minor progressive jackpot
Major Start - the starting major progressive jackpot (not really used)
Minor Start - the starting minor progressive jackpot
Major Max - the maximum major progressive that when reached will pay the major progressive jackpot
Minor Max - the maximum minor progressive that when reached will pay the minor progressive jackpot
Major Uptick - the amount of coin in that is required to increase the major progressive jackpot by the major increment
Minor Uptick - the amount of coin in that is required to increase the minor progressive jackpot by the minor increment
Major Increment - the amount that is added to the major progressive jackpot by surpassing the major uptick
Minor Increment - the amount that is added to the minor progressive jackpot by surpassing the minor uptick
Max Bet - the amount bet per spin (it doesn't need to be the max but you get there quicker that way)


Enjoy.
 

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Monkey, you're treading dangerously close to my area.:stabyou:
good thing nobody pays attention.

A few basic assumptions can be made which will go a long way.
1. you can assume the expectation is to hit progressive halfway.
2. On something like a "quick strike" I tend to give it an 80% payback w/o progressive.

Find out the meter and figure out how much coin in is needed to get there and from there the expected loss.
If the second prog is also high you can of course be a bit more loose.

Precision isn't required. You'll know a play when you see it. The hard part is finding them.

good job though expanding into these fields.
Awareness of slot play possibilities can land you on the front line of monster plays.
 
I love these posts. Thank you again MF.

There's a poker machine joint/restaurant 2 minutes away from my house. Going to check it out and get that info on how much money it takes to move the jackpot like you said.

Once I have that, you'll most likely need to help me out I'm afraid. :lmao:
 
Oksana wants to bankrupt her local pub. Unreal.

Damn right I do.

Australia has over 20% of the world's slot machines. And the guy who has a pretty big monopoly on them is a prick, forcing small country town pubs out of business by catering to all of the degens.

I'd love to figure out how to nail this shithead for some cash.
 
this thread makes me proud on a number of levels.


1) great mind grapes in action and writing from M.F..... I wish I understood more of what the above was about and played in casinos.... but I appreciate you sharing it greatly.

2) this thread has Reno posting in it 3 times

3) this thread has people being genuine and thanking a poster for posting valuable info

4) Most importantly, we managed to stay away from the Snide and Easy "SLOT STIMULATION" or Miley Cyrus slot simulation jokes.




that being said, I would now like to ask RAZOR to give us a top 10 Slot Simulation/stimulation one liners here