Hooligans Sportsbook

A link for people handicapping the touney matchups...

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Jello

Jello

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If anyone has paid attention to my CBB for the past few months, you know I've been pretty successful. I used my "friend's" blogspot to make all those selections. I sent this link to a couple people on SBR back in January (Pavy and Bread for sure) but I don't think any of them actually ever looked at it twice.

Anyway, he's got the matchups for the Thursday games up with a little capsule of analysis under each. I assume he'll have the other two brackets up probably tomorrow. Hiis model was pretty sharp all season and it hasn't done anything but get better as the year has progressed.

Just passing this along to anyone who might find it useful. I know some of you here have your own models - which is great - but for those that don't this is a pretty solid resource. It has been for me at least.


http://accstats.blogspot.com/
 
Jello do me a favor. I'm strictly tailing GameLive posters starting on Thursday. I don't have time to dissect this gem you are giving to me. If you post plays, I will follow them.

I'm a weird dood, I know.

HELP ME WIN MONEY GODAMMIT!!
 
Bread, I'm heading to NYC tonight on a redeye bus (Chinatown Bus, in fact) to hang out with my little sister in the Big Apple for a few days. I'm not going to be around too much, but if I get the chance to look it over versus the actual lines I will try to do so and post the plays.

I think my posted CBB plays since Jan, using this model exclusively, were right around 60%. We're talking about maybe 60-70 plays so not a large sample, but I've come to trust whatever methodology he's using.
 
Thanks durito. I'm glad to see that you approve.

Just an FYI for how I made plays using this - I look for spreads that are at least 5 points different than the model's projection, and totals usually at least 8 points off. Not very sophisticated on my part, but it was successful.
 
Jello
Thanks durito. I'm glad to see that you approve.

Just an FYI for how I made plays using this - I look for spreads that are at least 5 points different than the model's projection, and totals usually at least 8 points off. Not very sophisticated on my part, but it was successful.
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5 and 8 points off? You'll certainly not have long term profitability with a model that consistently deviates from the spread that widely.
 
MonkeyF0cker
5 and 8 points off? You'll certainly not have long term profitability with a model that consistently deviates from the spread that widely.
Click to expand...


Maybe not. I don't know. You would know more about that than I. All I can tell you is how I was picking games with this.

I see 1 game out of the 32 listed that have more than a 5 point deviation from the spread - BYU. There might be a couple more. I haven't looked that closely, but if I had to guess it was typically 1 out of 20 or so games where I'd see what I considered a good play based on that premise.
 
It's been hot lately mcb. I don't know if that bodes well for the future or not.

I used that tourney matrix from this link to pick my entire bracket. Just went with his probability for each matchup. It gave me BYU in the F4.

Jimmer Fredette baby!
 
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