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2012 College Football Plays

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wal66
The games I am narrowing down this week are..

Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh on the surface this looks like a no-brainer that Virginia Tech wins this by 17+ which makes ya wonder why it didnt open closer to that.

UL Monroe @ Auburn while Arkansas did have 3 key injuries last week this UL Monroe team were in it to win and they were physical with a not-too-soft SEC team in Arkansas. Add to that the fact Auburn is not on the same level as Arkansas (to this point at least) the points look tasty here. The problem is trying to evaluate the mindset of a team coming off its biggest win ever and how that emotion can continue or if that bubble burst. Back to back road SEC games is tough on SEC teams let alone a small school like UL Monroe.

Georgia Tech @ Boston College at a quick glance I like Georgia Tech but will have to look deeper.

North Texas @ Kansas St after what Kansas St did to Miami last weekend this appears to be another of those usually wrong no-brainers.

Mississippi St @ Troy gear up for an ass whoopn Troy.

Alabama @ Arkansas this will have everything to do with the line after its decided what the health of Tyler Wilson is. Alabama wins with or without but doesnt mean itll make the list of plays.

Florida @ Tennessee is a game I really would avoid but Ill have to post a play on the side or the TOTAL because I said I would for every Gator game. Florida looked good in the 2nd half last week but this is an increasingly improving Vols team with one of the better QBs not just in the conference but the nation.

Colorado St @ San Jose St have no clue but when I saw this game something moved. Could have been gas or breakfast simply settling but a sign is a sign.

BYU @ Utah Kato, Utah fokn SUCKS!!!!!!!!!

Houston @ UCLA while I make no bones about not being a huge fan of the Pac 12 I did like what I saw offensively out of this UCLA team last weekend. Lots of weapons and Houston appears to not be what they were the past couple of years. The line will most likely be higher by game day when I can grab it so might not make the list. I think 20 is good but not sure I think it enough to play it.


Most likely unless something funky happens my plays will comes from this list of games this week.
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Ohio @ Marshall is a game I had circled but missed it when I was posting. I expect the line to be higher by gametime but I also expect Ohio U to kick some ass.
 
Week #3



Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh

Right off the top I DO NOT like the early line movement in this game. Sometimes we see movement and it makes sense but usually the movement just makes most of us commoner say WTF?

Looking at the history of this game and the trends lean to Pittsburgh. Even some of the very good Virginia Tech teams laid an egg when they played Pittsburgh. Normally that would play a heavy factor when coupled with the afore mentioned line movement. I mean it stands to reason even if not logical that some teams just have other teams number even when common sense would suggest otherwise.

If I had to pick a side here even with history against me I could not play Pitt. While the Cincinnati loss is understandable that Youngstown St game just speaks volumes. Fortunately I dont have to make a pick and while I do think V-Tech covers the -10 I can stay away from this game and I will do just that.


UL Monroe @ Auburn

Wow, I still cant get what happened last week out of my mind. I re-watched the game on ESPN3 and while I saw how many bounces went UL Monroes way you cant deny that they put themselves in the position for those bounces to take place. You also cant deny that they punched the Razorbacks right in the mouth and went blow for blow in the trenches. They punished whomever they hit and they kept coming.

Auburn hasnt looked that good. True they came out against Clemson and played good at first but it wasnt long before the talent took over and Auburn just isnt deep enough or experienced enough to hang yet. Then last week against Mississippi St they were simply out-manned.

The problem I have with this game is the psyche of UL Monroe. They played and won the biggest game in their history and now they have to go back on the road and play another SEC team. Momentum can be an amazing ride and a team experienced in that ride can handle it and continue. A team not experienced though can get overwhelmed and simply crumble.


Knowing that Auburn is more one dimensional than Arkansas was and seeing how UL Monroe played against the run I will take my chances here and take the points. I would really rather have 17 and maybe by game time it might get there. I would LOVE to see a 20-13 UL Monroe win but Ill settle for a 27-17 Auburn victory.


Virginia @ Georgia Tech

Right off the bat I am passing on this game. I do believe Georgia Tech at home will win this game and there is a decent chance they will cover even maybe with ease but I just dont like it. I dont know enough about what to make of the squeaker Virginia pulled out against Penn St last week. It could be that Penn St really isnt that bad or it could be that Virginia was taking Penn St for granted and looking ahead to this game. Either way I havent seen enough or am not knowledgeable enough to make a play.


Ohio U @ Marshall

On the surface this game looks too easy. I mean this appears to be a very solid Ohio U football squad and most of us are quick to write off Marshall. At least that was my train of thought and from what I had seen early on some of the boards looked like what others were thinking as well.

Im still pretty confident in the play here but I do want to point out 2 Head-to-Head trends for those who take stock in those sort of things.

1: The HOME team is 5-1 ATS in the previous 6 meetings.
2: The UNDERDOG is 5-2 ATS in the previous 7 meetings.

Im not a live and diehard trends kind of guy but they become trends because they have a history of occurring over and over. So not giving them some credit would be asinine.

Even with the trends Im still going with my gut here and looking for Ohio to win by 13+.


North Texas @ Kansas St

If they play one game at a time this game is a no-brainer. After what I saw Kansas St do to a Miami team last week they should easily be able to do the same to North Texas. Unfortunately teams and even coaches go through the motions one week in anticipation with next week. This is a potential look ahead spot for Kansas St as they have Oklahoma on deck.

Im gonna hope that Kansas St keeps the pedal to the floor and cruises to a 30+ point win but if it goes wrong I wont be completely surprised.


Bowling Green @ Toledo

I liked what Bowling Green did with Florida but because of what Florida was attempting to do in that opener I have to re-think what I actually saw. With that in mind Im passing on this game. I originally had this game circled because I thought it was an outright win by Bowling Green but now Ive talked myself out of the game all together.


Mississippi St @ Troy

I dont want to try and convince anyone else that Mississippi St is really THAT good. I think they are but Im no guru. I do think they win this game and I think they cover. Since there is no danger of looking past this game for next week I think the Bulldogs can focus on the game at hand and even a little at trying to get some impressive victory points by hammering the scoreboard.

Im looking for a 45-10 type of game here even without style points.


Colorado St @ San Jose St

All I know is what Ive read about Colorado St being THAT BAD. I havent watched hoghlights or replays on either team here. I had a gut feeling that San Jose St was the play and I might end up making a play later but for now Ill pass.


BYU @ Utah

Rivalry games are usually bad bets for me. I always think I see where things should go and after the games I look back and see where I was sooooooooo wrong. This might be the same situation but I like BYU to win the game 33-17.


Houston @ UCLA

Im not a Pac 12 fan. I did like what I saw from UCLA last week though. Even though I have easily liked something one week and wondered WTF with the same team the next week I am still gonna lay the 17 in this spot and look for UCLA to cruise to an easy 24+ point win.


Week #3 Plays:

UL Monroe +16
Ohio U -6.5
Kansas St -28.5
Mississippi St -16.5
BYU -4.5
UCLA -17
 
wal66
UL Monroe @ Auburn

Wow, I still can’t get what happened last week out of my mind. I re-watched the game on ESPN3 and while I saw how many bounces went UL Monroe’s way you can’t deny that they put themselves in the position for those bounces to take place. You also can’t deny that they punched the Razorbacks right in the mouth and went blow for blow in the trenches. They punished whomever they hit and they kept coming.

Auburn hasn’t looked that good. True they came out against Clemson and played good at first but it wasn’t long before the talent took over and Auburn just isn’t deep enough or experienced enough to hang yet. Then last week against Mississippi St they were simply out-manned.

The problem I have with this game is the psyche of UL Monroe. They played and won the biggest game in their history and now they have to go back on the road and play another SEC team. Momentum can be an amazing ride and a team experienced in that ride can handle it and continue. A team not experienced though can get overwhelmed and simply crumble.


Knowing that Auburn is more one dimensional than Arkansas was and seeing how UL Monroe played against the run I will take my chances here and take the points. I would really rather have 17 and maybe by game time it might get there. I would LOVE to see a 20-13 UL Monroe win but I’ll settle for a 27-17 Auburn victory.
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What do you mean not good enough yet? This is Chizik's 4th year. His classes for 4 years. The lack of talent isn't due to his recruiting. It's his lack of coaching ability. ARK, while having a decent passer, has no defense. That has been their weakness for years. In their frist two games, ARK has given up over 800 yards against Jacksonville St. and ULM. Now Auburn, who also has no defense, has given up over 900 yards. Sure their opponents have been tougher but there is still a noticable lack of defense from the boys coached by the coordinator with the 70's porn star moustache.

ok I'm done. I just wanted to take a few shots at the pigs and the barn!:smooch:
 
wal66
Week #3 Plays:

UL Monroe +16
Ohio U -6.5
Kansas St -28.5
Mississippi St -16.5
BYU -4.5
UCLA -17
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I posted the plays I would be on with the line at the time but as I have stated I can't bet anything till gameday so here is the lines I actually have.

UL Monroe +15
Ohio U -6.5
Kansas St -28
Mississippi St -15
BYU -3
UCLA -17


I will be grading these based on the worst line for each.
 
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