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Matty Rain's 2024-25 NHL Thread

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Fokkin Blues blew a 2-0 lead

Need Isles to beat the Oilers to have a winning day

lets go islanders


For the love of Mike Bossy
 
Matty
Recap:

YTD 72-73 +18.2u

Tuesday November 12

Ottawa Senators +125 :greencheck:
New York Islanders +195 :redx:
Florida Panthers -125 :redx:
St. Louis Blues +140 :redx:
Click to expand...
Blues and Isles were so close, fok. Good bets anyhoo.

1-3 -2u

YTD 73-76 +16.2u

Wednesday November 13

Washington Capitals -125
Carolina Hurricanes -188
Anaheim Ducks +170
 
YTD 73-79 +12.07u

Thursday November 14

Ottawa Senators -161
Winnipeg Jets EV
Florida Panthers -133
San Jose Sharks +2.5 -139
Buffalo Sabres -154
Vancouver Canucks -167

These wacky lines are courtesy of my newest book, Betano. Hockey looks way soft there. I missed Jets +105 by a few seconds.
 
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So I started a ChatGPT prompt a few days ago to see if it could compute a line on its own, based on an idea I had for next baseball season. It ends up quite far from my GAR-based model in most cases. I just asked it to compute tonight's games and it gave me this:

Here are estimated win probabilities and moneyline odds for tonight’s NHL games based on updated lineups, recent form, Elo ratings, and goaltending status:

  1. Flyers at Senators: Senators favored, 58% win probability (-138).
  2. Jets at Lightning: Lightning favored, 60% win probability (-150).
  3. Sharks at Rangers: Rangers favored, 79% win probability (-376).
  4. Devils at Panthers: Devils favored, 53% win probability (-113).
  5. Blues at Sabres: Sabres favored, 57% win probability (-133).
  6. Canadiens at Wild: Wild favored, 63% win probability (-170).
  7. Bruins at Stars: Stars favored, 56% win probability (-127).
  8. Predators at Oilers: Oilers favored, 61% win probability (-156).
  9. Islanders at Canucks: Canucks favored, 55% win probability (-122).
  10. Blackhawks at Kraken: Kraken favored, 68% win probability (-212)
Compare that to my GAR model:

Sens 64% (+6%)
Jets 55% (+15%)
Rangers 75% (-4%)
Panthers 58% (+11%)
Sabres 67% (+10%)
Stars 62% (+6%)
Wild 73% (+10%)
Oilers 63% (+2%)
Canucks 66% (+11%)
Kraken 60% (-8%)

If my plays were based on ChatGPT's lines I would've played these instead:

Flyers +145
Lightning -114
Devils +120
Canadiens +220
Bruins +145
Islanders +147
Kraken -160
 
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Matty
YTD 73-79 +12.07u

Thursday November 14

Ottawa Senators -161 :redx:
Winnipeg Jets EV :redx:
Florida Panthers -133 :redx:
San Jose Sharks +2.5 -139 :greencheck:
Buffalo Sabres -154 :greencheck:
Vancouver Canucks -167 :redx:

These wacky lines are courtesy of my newest book, Betano. Hockey looks way soft there. I missed Jets +105 by a few seconds.
Click to expand...

THAT WENT POORLY

2-4 -3.61u

YTD 75-83 +8.46u

I'm going to start tracking ChatGPT plays separately. I am not betting these; this is just another experiment that I'll drop as soon as it starts going bad. :spinner:

Yesterday's results:
Flyers +145 :greencheck:
Lightning -114 :greencheck:
Devils +120 :greencheck:
Canadiens +220 :redx:
Bruins +145 :redx:
Islanders +147 :greencheck:
Kraken -160 :greencheck:
Click to expand...

ChatGPT YTD 5-2 +4.07u
 
YTD 75-83 +8.46u

Friday November 15

Columbus Blue Jackets +112
Calgary Flames +108
Utah Hockey Club +108
Anaheim Ducks +126

***

ChatGPT Elo Plays
YTD 5-2 +4.07u

Pittsburgh Penguins -128
Colorado Avalanche -167
Vegas Golden Knights -122
Calgary Flames +108
Detroit Red Wings -143
 
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Matty
YTD 75-83 +8.46u

Friday November 15

Columbus Blue Jackets +112 :greencheck:
Calgary Flames +108 :greencheck:
Utah Hockey Club +108 :redx:
Anaheim Ducks +126 :greencheck:

***

ChatGPT Elo Plays
YTD 5-2 +4.07u

Pittsburgh Penguins -128 :redx:
Colorado Avalanche -167 :redx:
Vegas Golden Knights -122 :greencheck:
Calgary Flames +108 :greencheck:
Detroit Red Wings -143 :redx:
Click to expand...
3-1 +2.46u
YTD 78-84 +10.92u

:irishluck:

ChatGPT Plays 2-3 -2.3u
YTD 7-5 +1.77u
 
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