Mavericks +197 / Heat -220

[choo]

Who do you like? when 5dimes was working I saw Mavs +205. -220 available at jazette/pinny.

 

[FreeFall]

wow this opened with the mavs @ +168

 

[FairWarning]

Makes sense with this dumb 2-3-2 format. Great time to get out of my Heat bet, no defined go-to guy. Much easier to hate Miami knowing I have nothing on them.

 

[Saulty]

If Mavericks lose tomorrow you can probably get +400 or more.

 

[choo]

it will be higher than +400 if they lose tomorrow.

 

[FairWarning]

What if they win game 5?

 

[choo]

wow this opened with the mavs @ +168

makes sense since the g5 line opened about 4% more in favor of the mavs than the -113/+102 where it sits now.

 

[Saulty]

If they win in game 5 then you can bet them as dogs for game 6. Mavs game 6 ML has to be +150 to +175.

 

[choo]

If they win in game 5 then you can bet them as dogs for game 6.

this sounds a lot like Vegas Runner logic. What if Mavs win game 5 and lose game 6?

 

[Mudcat]

I reckon I see more value on the Dallas side of that line. I favor Miami to win but not that much.

 

[Saulty]

this sounds a lot like Vegas Runner logic. What if Mavs win game 5 and lose game 6?

If Dallas wins game 5 then game 6 is their Superbowl because there was never a game 7 champion who won on the road.

 

[choo]

there was never a game 7 champion who won on the road.

happened twice in the 70s.

 

[FairWarning]

I would love to see Dallas win in 7. It would be an epic fail for Miami and all the LeBron supporters.

 

[Saulty]

happened twice in the 70s.

Well it hasn't happened in 40 years. I guess you can bet the Mavericks now at +197 and hedge them at game 7 if needed. There are so many angles to bet the remaining games and series price.

 

[choo]

Well it hasn't happened in 40 years. I guess you can bet the Mavericks now at +197 and hedge them at game 7 if needed. There are so many angles to bet the remaining games and series price.

surely don't mean profitable angles, right? What happens if the Heat are > -197 in game 7?

You are thinking of value properly in regards to thinking about future prices, but you are going about it horribly wrong.

 

[Saulty]

surely don't mean profitable angles, right? What happens if the Heat are > -197 in game 7?

You are thinking of value properly in regards to thinking about future prices, but you are going about it horribly wrong.

I think what I would do if it goes to Game 7 and I'm holding a +197 Dallas ticket is to wait until halftime and see if I can hedge it with -110 line on 2nd half bet. If not then I would let it ride.

 

[choo]

lol ok.

 

[FreeFall]

I'm holding a DAL +165 series ticket from the start. I'd love for DAL to win the next game so I can hedge it. I don't want this position anymore.