future on Butler

[senco78]

I got Butler at +315, risking 1 unit.
what would be the optimal hedge???
I'm seeing around -165 for UCONN.

PS. I'm mathematically retarded

 

[FreeFall]

why do you want to hedge it? By your own smarts or idiocy you are holding a +315 ticket on a +148 line.

 

[Tron]

I think the first question is:

Is a hedge in this spot +EV?

 

[Tron]

No need for name calling, FreeFall.

 

[senco78]

want to hedge for a guarenteed profit
what yer tone with me FF I'll put the 169 posses on dat ass

 

[choo]

I think the first question is:

Is a hedge in this spot +EV?

change V to G and you are correct.

 

[Saulty]

If I were to hedge this bet I would wait until halftime and see what happens. If Butler is up you can hedge it for -110 on UConn instead of paying -165 now. If UConn is up then you let it ride.

 

[senco78]

where's fightingirish when ya need him?
we need some professional advice here

 

[rito]

This is not optimal, but if you want to guarantee equal profit, risk 2.58 units on uconn -165 .... you make .57u either result

 

[rito]

the hedge can be -ev yet still be +eg, a small bet on uconn would probably maximize eg, but im not at home and cant check that for sure

 

[senco78]

I was thinking just bet on UCONN to break even if they win
probally just let it ride, make the game more interesting

 

[Cougar Bait]

I have a ten dollar bet that pays 600 if Butler wins outright.

GL tonight Mikey.

 

[senco78]

I have a ten dollar bet that pays 600 if Butler wins outright.

GL tonight Mikey.

alright:cheersbuddy:

 

[Tron]

change V to G and you are correct.

If -165 on UConn is -EV, isn't the hedge -EV?

Explain it to me like I'm not a pro sports bettor (because I'm not).

 

[choo]

If -165 on UConn is -EV, isn't the hedge -EV?

Yes, but this:

the hedge can be -ev yet still be +eg, a small bet on uconn would probably maximize eg, but im not at home and cant check that for sure

I wouldn't hedge unless you get at least -160. Using 49.5x available ((100% - 1 unit) * 1/2 kelly) I'm getting .55x at that price. Someone should check my work though.

 

[Tron]

Thanks

 

[rito]

Read these daft:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapp...s-expected-growth-kelly-criterion-part-i.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapp...-expected-growth-kelly-criterion-part-ii.html

 

[fiveteamer]

I feel like if I could understand that shit I should be doing something more with it than gambling on sports.