The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

[Polaroid]

They just needed a 1 year stopgap before they sign Pujols or Fielder to a long-term deal. I'd prefer Fielder for $200 million over Pujols for $300 million, Fielder will probably outperform Pujols over the course of their next contracts.

Cubs weren't going to do anything this year anyways, especially after all the injuries. Be lucky to get to .500 by the end of the year.

No way will either player get that type of money. For starters, the three biggest spending markets (NYY, PHI and BOS) have all got long term deals to cover the 1B position for years to come - when you take those three out of the potential market, there is little to no chance of any bidding war. The fact that the two are on the market at the same time lessens what they would get otherwise. Fielder is the archetypal slugger who posts an awesome wOBA but who is a big liability in defense and running the bases, much like Ryan Howard. Let's also note that Howard signed one of the bizarre deals I've ever seen which ties him to the Phillies for years to come even though his decline phase appeared to start in 2010. No team is going to take a $200 million risk on Fielder when the price of a good DH this season was $2 million (see Manny).

Pujols is simply too old too warrant a $300 million signing (although he is more likely to get that number than Fielder is to get $200 million). Over the past decade, he has been the best player in baseball and no-one comes close to him. If you base value on wins above replacement (which you should) then for any period from his debut in 2001 (2001-2011, 2002-2011, 2003-2011 right up to 2009-2011) he has amassed more WAR than any player in each of those nine time periods. This year he is performing well above average but he isn't in the top 30 batters over the course of the season. Having by far the worst season in your career is really bad when you're expecting a long term and high money deal.

[Polaroid]

OT for a friend - anyone know of a minor-league sabr site?

If you go to fangraphs.com and click on Leaders in the top menu, you can select minor league stats for each of the leagues - they have FIP and wOBA type of statistics if you click on Advanced.

[FreeFall]

Man this was a rough thread. I'm sorry for the boys on the cubs. Mine cashed

[FreeFall]

Hi potato. What kind of limits those places have

Shit Betting has +225 if that tickles your pickle. Not much

[RogueJuror]

MF'r gave us a winner and we didn't listen. Brutal.

of man I was expecting daft vader to make a return this week

[Potato]

Pinny down to +210/-241

[Herman]

No way will either player get that type of money. For starters, the three biggest spending markets (NYY, PHI and BOS) have all got long term deals to cover the 1B position for years to come - when you take those three out of the potential market, there is little to no chance of any bidding war. The fact that the two are on the market at the same time lessens what they would get otherwise. Fielder is the archetypal slugger who posts an awesome wOBA but who is a big liability in defense and running the bases, much like Ryan Howard. Let's also note that Howard signed one of the bizarre deals I've ever seen which ties him to the Phillies for years to come even though his decline phase appeared to start in 2010. No team is going to take a $200 million risk on Fielder when the price of a good DH this season was $2 million (see Manny).

Pujols is simply too old too warrant a $300 million signing (although he is more likely to get that number than Fielder is to get $200 million). Over the past decade, he has been the best player in baseball and no-one comes close to him. If you base value on wins above replacement (which you should) then for any period from his debut in 2001 (2001-2011, 2002-2011, 2003-2011 right up to 2009-2011) he has amassed more WAR than any player in each of those nine time periods. This year he is performing well above average but he isn't in the top 30 batters over the course of the season. Having by far the worst season in your career is really bad when you're expecting a long term and high money deal.

We need a polaroid random thoughts baseball thread, you are sharp.

[FairWarning]

Cubs are not signing any big name FA. Why would Fielder or Pujols want to come to Chicago? The Ricketts guy is the MLB version of the McCaskeys. They need to dump all the bad contracts, but the owner insists its just a few injuries,

[Polaroid]

Now Pujols is out for 4-6 weeks. The Cardinals reputedly offered $200/9yr at the start of the season, that is an even bigger risk now since his stock is rock bottom (for him). If he doesn't re-sign with the Cardinals long term, he might be best off taking a one year deal to get a better deal in 2013 and beyond - his average worth has been about $36 million a year over his career (even including this year) - I can see the Cubs (or others) paying $30+ for a year of him.

[Polaroid]

We need a polaroid random thoughts baseball thread, you are sharp.

Good idea.

[FairWarning]

I would love to contribute to that thread too.

[Herman]

Now Pujols is out for 4-6 weeks. The Cardinals reputedly offered $200/9yr at the start of the season, that is an even bigger risk now since his stock is rock bottom (for him). If he doesn't re-sign with the Cardinals long term, he might be best off taking a one year deal to get a better deal in 2013 and beyond - his average worth has been about $36 million a year over his career (even including this year) - I can see the Cubs (or others) paying $30+ for a year of him.

The reason I said Pujols and $300 million earlier in the thread because it was reported that he was asking that for 10 years.

And do you think Fielder won't get $200 million, being a Boras client and they will likely be in the playoffs? Could be a Carlos Beltran type deal, based on a great contract year with a deep playoff run.

[FairWarning]

The reason I said Pujols and $300 million earlier in the thread because it was reported that he was asking that for 10 years.

And do you think Fielder won't get $200 million, being a Boras client and they will likely be in the playoffs? Could be a Carlos Beltran type deal, based on a great contract year with a deep playoff run.

No i dont. Who will give it to him?

[Herman]

No i dont. Who will give it to him?

Cubs, possibly.

Another contract question is Jose Reyes. He leads MLB in WAR this year and is still only 28 I think.

[fiveteamer]

Is this true? Did he really turn down 200 mil over 9 years?

[FairWarning]

Cubs, possibly.

Another contract question is Jose Reyes. He leads MLB in WAR this year and is still only 28 I think.

Again, why would he or Pujols want to go to the Cubs? This is a 65-win team with no future.

[Herman]

Again, why would he or Pujols want to go to the Cubs? This is a 65-win team with no future.

We need Polaroid to start that baseball thread to continue this discussion further. Bottom line is players don't care about winning, they care about $$$.

Fans care more than the players.

[Daft]

Again, why would he or Pujols want to go to the Cubs? This is a 65-win team with no future.

At the end of the day, players go where the money is. They can't play baseball in their 50's and 60's so they need to make money now so they can provide for themelves and their families.

Of course hometown discounts exist but I suspect those deals happen as to not disrupt family life.