Big Wa Wa's Alabama at Florida Preview

Alabama at Florida

As I am writing this I am watching the line drop in this contest. It opened at 4.5 and 5 at most places and any that opened at 5 pretty quickly went to 4.5. Now I am seeing the line at 3.5 in a bunch of places. I imagine this latest movement has something to do with the game being moved from 3:30 to 8:00. I can only speculate but I imagine many well informed people already knew this would happen. I also know that while The Swamp is always a good home field advantage it is even more so at night, much like playing at LSU but not quite.


I have read plenty about why Florida is the play, everything from the opening line was such that it practically begged for Alabama action to Alabama is overrated and Florida is grossly underrated.

Florida is vastly improved both on the field of play, on the sidelines and most importantly in the minds of the players. You can see how much this team is buying into the style of coaching and the surge of energy of Muschamp and staff.

I honestly see the improvement and even though I picked South Carolina to win the East I now think Florida has a much better chance than I originally thought of taking that. However winning the East and winning this game isn’t the same thing.

In my eyes, and sorry but that is the best I can offer Florida doesn't match up as well with Alabama. Brantley is better yes, but he still appears a little whacky at times, especially when he feels pressured. Demp's and Rainey are phenomenal and have speed to burn but they aren't bruising type backs, in fact Florida doesn't have a bruiser coming out of the backfield. Also Florida doesn't have a serious go to type receiver. They have plenty of guys to throw to but none that poses a serious threat. This, even more than a punishing runner is a problem. Florida has to back Alabama off and force them to respect the pass, otherwise the Tide will load the box to stop the run.

Alabama has a freshman quarterback under center and while that is cause for concern especially in as hostile an environment as Florida he did withstand that pressure last week Arkansas. Granted it will be a different atmosphere in the Swamp. Wanna talk about bruising type runners then let's talk about Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy. Both backs run north and south and run hard. The Tide also has a receiver that will force Florida to respect in Marquis Maze. Simply throwing the names out there mean nothing if you haven't seen these guys perform. They are all serious next level players and will force Florida to focus on stopping one aspect of the game but still respect the other.

On defense both these teams have fast and physical players all over the field. I have been seriously impressed with Florida's improvement here the most but even with all that we are still sketchy in the secondary. I do believe Florida can play physical against the run but I'm not sure we can shut down the receivers in man coverage.

This game has potential to be a major showcase bonanza that even SEC haters will not be able to not watch with complete amazement. I do think there is a chance that Florida can win this game but it will take a near perfect performance and honestly some plays and schemes that we haven't seen yet. Weiss is capable of calling that type of game and Florida has the players to perform at that level but I'm not convinced Florida is quite ready just yet.

I think it will be a relatively low scoring game and I have Alabama winning between 7-10 points. I got the game early and already have lost value but I stand by what I have.


Play: Alabama -5