K-Rod And The Value Of The Closer Pt 1

As the Francisco Rodriguez saga between the Major League Baseball Players Association and the Commissioner's Office will most likely run and run until the end of the season and, more likely, through next year’s Spring Training, the New York Mets have publicly stated that they want K-Rod to come back in 2011 for the final year of his 3 year $37 million contract which he signed fresh after breaking the single season saves record with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2008. The 28 year old closer is due to make $11.5 million in 2011 but there is a vesting option for 2012 worth $17.5 million which is guaranteed if Rodriguez pitches in 55 games in 2011, a total of 100 games over 2010/2011 and if he is declared fit by doctors after the 2011 season. As the Mets are 11 games back in the NL West and 7th in the race for the Wild Card it seems that their season is over, with left fielder Jason Bay out for the rest of the season and Jeff Francour hitting .231 in right field, and so it would seem prudent for the Mets to keep K-Rod on the disqualified list and to avoid paying him any more wages and then draw a line under the 2010 season where they entered Friday with a 0.54% chance of making the playoffs.




The next issue is what the Mets are planning to do in regard getting him back, or otherwise, for 2011. Even if he never sets foot on the pitching mound again in 2010, which seems highly likely, then Rodriguez will already have 53 games under his belt; since he has averaged 69 appearances over his first five years as a closer, it would seem that if he avoids injury then the $17.5 million option for 2012 will be exercised and he would be owed a total of $29 million for 2011/2012. At the end of 2012 he will probably be a Type A free agent (he is currently ranked 5th best of the 28 pitchers currently ranked as Type A) and so there will be compensatory draft picks should he leave for another club which, according to Victor Wang is worth in the region of $4.6 million leaving a net balance of $24.4 million.

The Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a statistic which measure the worth of a player in terms of how many wins that player is worth over an average bench player. Giving each WAR a monetary value means it can be converted into a measurement as to how much that player should be worth on the free market. Using a valuation of an average $4.5 million per WAR over 2011/2012 (the value of a win is $4 million in 2010, down from $4.5 million in 2009), the $24.4 million in payments to Rodriguez converts to 5.42 WAR over two years or an average of 2.71 annually. However, K-Rod has only averaged 1.72 WAR per year from 2005-2009 which represent his first five years as a closer and in none of those seasons did he manage to get near to 2.71 WAR.

So assuming that the New York Mets are able to release themselves from the contract for anything less than $9 million they should jump at the chance; especially since this is assuming that removing a volatile character like Rodriguez - with numerous documented issues between K-Rod and various players, coaches and officials in his 18 months at the club - from the club has no net monetary benefit to the Mets.


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