Australian Football League Melbourne Vs Richmond 4/17 2310EST

Tonight's AFL preview bought to you by: Gambling - "because money won is twice as sweet as money earned".

Having lost their first three matches by an average of 61 points, events at Tigerland have everybody disappointed. Add to that the eight-week suspension of Daniel Connors and the one-week penalties handed to Ben Cousins, Luke McGuane and Dean Polo for off-field incidents after round three, it has been a below par start to the 2010 season.

On the opposing end of the spectrum things are looking up for the Melbourne Demons. Having only played disappointingly to the Hawks in round one the Demons showed fighting spirit against the Magpies, going down by the narrowest of margins the following week when only the most loyal red-and-blue fan gave them any hope. Having beaten an injury riddled Adelaide last week in round three Melbourne has found renewed optimism for the season. The Demons will face a different challenge on Sunday - entering a match as favourites.

Jack Grimes is fast becoming one of Melbourne's most potent players, despite playing just 15 matches. He was instrumental in the final quarter against the Crows last week, where he won eight of his 20 touches for the match. His ability to set up play across half back has been impressive. First year Tiger Dustin Martin has been excellent having averaged more than 20 disposals in his first three games, whilst having 22 disposals against the swans last week.

Can Richmond cast aside its tough start to the season - on and off the field - and upset the now more-fancied Demons? This could be their best opportunity early in the season with matches against an in-form Fremantle and reigning premier Geelong looming. Is Melbourne able to achieve its best start to a season since 2005, when the Demons won three of their opening four matches? A 2-2 win-loss record will be a most encouraging start to 2010, particularly after its season opener against Hawthorn.

Both teams have struggled to kick a score this season - Melbourne's 12.13 (85) against Collingwood is the best either side has managed in their opening three matches. Melbourne is averaging just 68 points per match, and Richmond just 56. The Demons have much better form on the board, especially in the past two rounds, and appear to have more talent at their disposal.

My pick here is Melbourne Demons -20.5 (+100) pinnacle for 1 unit. Lets see if we can end this weekends round of matches on a high note.




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